Summary
With Bethesda’sStarfieldfinally out the door, it presumably won’t be too long before Bethesda is free to turn its attention to its other franchisees. Microsoft’s FTC court case indicatesThe Elder Scrolls 6won’t be released until 2026 or later.Fallout 5is on its way sometime after that, though it is likely still so far off that it’s almost pointless to speculate as to exactly when.
However, just because the nextFalloutis so many years away doesn’t mean developers don’t have plans for it. Todd Howard confirmed this in 2021, revealing that Bethesda has a rough outline ofFallout 5. The studio’s plans for the nextFalloutmay go back further than that, withNew VegasandFallout 4hinting that the new game might take place in post-apocalyptic San Francisco.
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Fallout: New Vegas Almost Was Fallout: San Francisco
The link between San Francisco andFallout: New Vegasis admittedly weaker than the one between the city andFallout 4. However, it may offer a possible window into just how long Bethesda has considered making a game set in San Francisco. An internet rumor maintains that Obsidian wanted to destroy San Francisco inNew Vegas' backstory, but Bethesda stopped it. The truth seems to be that Black Isle Studios would have had the Enclave destroy San Francisco shortly afterthe events ofFallout 2. Of course, since that lore is from the canceled “Van Buren” version ofFallout 3, it isn’t necessarily relevant to modernFallout.
However, in the lead-up toFallout: New Vegas' release, Obsidian Entertainment’s CEO Feargus Urquhart revealed that the game wasn’t originally going to take place in Vegas. Obsidian had pitched Bethesda a game set in “a certain city” but that Bethesda wanted to save that setting for something else, hinting thatBethesda’s plans forFallout 5may go back a long time. Urquhart never revealed which city he was talking about, but San Francisco is a definite possibility.
It is also worth noting thatNew Vegasnever references San Francisco despite the city being a significantlocation inFallout 2.Fallout 2locations like Vault City, New Reno, the NCR capital, Boneyard, Arroyo, The Den, Redding, Klamath, Broken Hills, Modoc, and Navarro all get at least one shout-out inFallout: New Vegas. This makes the lack of San Francisco references conspicuous, but it would make sense if Obsidian was told to leave the city free for future use.
San Francisco References in Fallout 4
Some fans have noticed that Golden Gate Bridge appears inFallout4’s “Atomic Command” holotape game, alongside the Las Vegas sign, major DC landmarks, and Boston’s Custom House Tower. However, the mini-game also includes the Seattle Space Needle, Mount Rushmore, St. Lewis Gateway Arch, and The Statue of Liberty, so the bridge’s inclusion isn’t necessarily significant.
That said,Fallout 4contains far more significant references to San Francisco. Most of these relate to Conrad Kellog, the Institute henchman who sets the plot in motion by killing the player’s spouse and kidnapping Shaun. During their investigation, players learn that the mercenary fancies rare cigars called San Francisco Sunsets.
Later, while examining Kellogg’s memories in the Memory Den, players learn that Kellogg was a mercenary from the New California Republic. After making a name for himself, he drew the attention of the Shi, who gave him steady work as a guard and enforcer. He then got married and moved to San Francisco, and players can even see the Golden Gate Bridge in his memories.
Kellogg having worked for the Shi indicates they are likely still a factor in modernFallout. Based in San Francisco’s Chinatown, the Shi descend from the crew of a Chinese submarine who were left stranded after the Great War. A technological power comparable toFallout 4’s Institute, one of their endings inFallout 2sees the Shi emerge as a major power in California.
Meanwhile, the Shi’s main rivals also appear inFallout 4’s DLC. The"Trip to the Stars" side quest inNuka-Worldsees players encounter a kooky UFO cult called the Hubologists. While one group managed to migrate all the way to New England, the cult originates inFallout 2’s San Francisco, where they operate from the ruins of the Golden Gate Bridge. They also have members in the NCR. CutFallout 2endings would have seen the cult destroyed by its disastrous attempts to rediscover space travel. However,Fallout 4: Nuka-Worldshows that the Hubologists are still around as of 2287.
Fallout 4’s references to the Shi and inclusion of Hubologists may be just fun nods to the earlier games. Still, it’s interesting thatFallout 4specifically references San Francisco and San Francisco-based groups as often as it does. It’s tempting to think that Bethesda wanted to implant the idea of San Francisco into players' minds as some kind of foreshadowing.
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Bethesda’s Pattern of Foreshadowing
This would not be the first time Bethesda used one game to introduce concepts for the next. For Example, NPCs inThe Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivionwill discuss rumors of wizards leading anti-imperial boycotts in the Summerset Isles. The wizards in question are presumablySkyrim’s Thalmor, who used the chaos following the Oblivion Crisis to establish the Third Aldmeri Dominion.
Meanwhile, theFallout 3side quest “The Replicated Man” saw players investigating a runaway android. The quest introduces the Commonwealth, the Institute, the Railroad, Railroad mind wiping, and the human-passing androids, later called Synths.Fallout 3’s Broken Steel and The Pitt DLCsalso briefly reference the Commonwealth.
At the time,Oblivion’s Altmer wizards andFallout 3’s Commonwealth might have seemed like nothing more than simple worldbuilding. However, fans now know that they were important pieces of foreshowing for the next game, andFallout 4’s references to San Francisco are much more prominent than either of those examples. Either Bethesda issettingFallout 5to take place in the Golden City, or the studio gaveFalloutfans one heck of a red herring.
