Paramount’sTop Gun: Maverickhas successfully entertained audiences for the past four weekends, earning roughly $900 million worldwide. One would expect the heavy momentum propelling the film to diminish throughout its theatrical run, but signs point toTop Gun: Maverickwinning the domestic box office, despite the theatrical debut of Baz Luhrmann’sElvisand Scott Derrickson’sThe Black Phonethis weekend.
Top Gun: Maverickis a sequel to the 1986 original filmTop Gunand welcomesthe return of Tom Cruisealongside newcomer Miles Teller in the exciting narrative. The film finished third this past weekend at the domestic box office, earning $44 million to bring its overall total to $470.1 million. Unfortunately, the sequel’s fifth weekend looks to paint a similar picture, which would lead to an unexpected upset at the box office with the release of two potential Oscar-worthy projects.
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Per Deadline,Top Gun: Maverickis currently leading advanced ticket sales for the weekend and will look to make over $30 million across the three-day theatrical slate. The performance would not only put the project over the half-billion mark, but it would be enough to topple two exciting newcomers.Elvis,which stars Austin Butleras the titular figure, is expected to bring in over $20 million, while the Ethan Hawke-led filmThe Black Phonelooks to take home an estimated $15 million or more.
Both upcoming films have received favorable reviews from critics but, unfortunately, may not attract enough of an audience to make a significant dent in the box office standings. Last weekend’s box office winnerJurassic World Dominionlooks to earn roughly $29 million this weekend, whileDisney and Pixar’sLightyear, which finished second last weekend, looks to take home a dismal $25 million. With current projections,ElvisandThe Black Phonecould fail to fall in the top three, which would undoubtedly be a disappointment for the studios behind both films.
The good news, however, is that these projections are not set in stone and could ultimately be proven wrong by the end of the weekend. Both upcoming films appeal to a different demographic, which could affect their performance if audiences in their targeted age range fail to show up.Elvisis aiming its focus toward an older audience because young audiences may not be interested in the symbolic musical icon.The Black Phone, however, is seeking to attract a relatively younger crowd, but only time will tell if the film can take their attention away from other projects currently playing in theaters.
The domestic box office has been a fluctuating seesaw throughout the year, but newly released films tend to perform well, especially when backed by aggressive marketing campaigns. What’s clearly evident, however, is that audience’s interest is dictating things at the box office more heavily than other components attached to these films. If the interest isn’t there, the project will underperform, a pathElvisandThe Black Phonelook to be heading toward this weekend.
